Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Republicans have paid some attention. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. Go on, look them up! Just how big is it? It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. The divisions were everywhere. Twitter Twitter Seriously. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. Outstanding. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Will That Last?]. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! Their concerns are real. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. Nobody forgot about politics.". Read about our approach to external linking. 3. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. These counties could play an . Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. "They followed through the whole four years. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Their hopes are real. First, what are bellwether counties? Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. All Rights Reserved. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. 2023 BBC. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. Really stop reading. Their emotions and decision making process are real. (i.e. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via 108,000 people. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. Jeff. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . All rights reserved. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. That report was issued on Nov. 12. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. Demographics (84) It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. Enter Donald Trump. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". What science tells us about the afterlife. Sumter County, . We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. 5. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. (Sorry, not sorry.) Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. In their . Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. . Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). Not anymore. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? Free and open-source. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. Here's why. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. Contributors wanted First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. These are the bellwether counties. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Trump gave them hope. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. ET. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". 11. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. . When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. Voter Demographics (9). I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. . Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. What are your thoughts on this article? Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years.